![]() Abrupt changes between adjacent areas can be seen in some cases, since natural gradients (caused by elevation changes, for example) present in the raw data are smoothed in this averaging process. Precipitation change data were averaged by administrative boundaries. Global administrative boundaries data by GADM. While broad regional trends can be robustly projected, some variation from these averaged projections should be expected at local levels. The amount of uncertainty in projections increases at smaller geographic scales. Precipitation change was calculated between historical levels and the 2050s under Scenario 8.5, which represents a high-end emissions scenario if global emissions remain unmitigated. Worldclim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. World Precipitation Change 2050s Scenario: IPCC 5AR CIAT downscaled NCAR CCSM4 model under Scenario 8.5 from CCAFS and partners.īaseline precipitation for 1970-2000 scenario from WorldClim. ![]() How could you be affected? Explore the map below to see how unmitigated climate change is projected to change average annual precipitation in your area - and around the world - in the 2050s. Research published this year has linked ongoing climate change to recent hurricanes, droughts and other weather patterns that are already becoming more dangerous across the globe. They are also significant to our lives today. ![]() These predictions are not just warnings for a distant future. While there may be some short-term relief for the Mediterranean, southern Africa and southern Australia, he says “the longer-term forecast is for drought to return in an even more severe way.” “High latitudes and parts of the tropics are expected to get even wetter,” he says. The exact effects of these changes will vary depending on where people live, according to Dargan Frierson, an associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. As a result, “the consequences can be vast” for crops and natural vegetation, Caldas says. Caldas says areas with decreasing total precipitation may actually face an increase in extreme weather - “meaning when it does rain, it is likely to be a heavier rain event.”Įven areas with relatively small projected changes in precipitation can still experience huge impacts because the changes will combine with shifts in temperature, pollution and other factors. It’s not just the amount of rainfall that will change, but also when and how it falls. Astrid Caldas, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, “but there’s one thing scientists agree on: Wet areas will likely get wetter, and dry areas will get drier.” Rain totals from Harvey as it moved through Texas, Louisiana and much of the eastern portion of the USA.“Precipitation has always been one of the hardest variables to project under climate change,” attests Dr. At least 45 people were killed by Harvey, including in its floodwaters.įlooding sat around for more than two weeks in some portions of the Houston metro, but most floodwaters receded within 2 to 7 days across southeastern Texas. Additional communities that saw more than 50 inches include:Ħ0.58 inches near Nederland, Texas (new national Tropical Cyclone rainfall record)Ħ0.54 inches in Groves, Texas (also more than the previous national Tropical Cyclone rainfall record set in 1978)ĥ4 inches near Bunker Hill Village, Texasĥ2.87 inches on Clear Creek at Interstate 45 near League City, Texasįlood-prone Houston saw days of flash flooding as Harvey stagnated over the Lone Star State. Frozen precipitation is measured according to its liquid equivalent: 10 cm of snow is usually about 10 mm of precipitation. The total amount of rain, drizzle, snow, sleet, etc. The map shows the 30-year average of the total precipitation for the time period under consideration (e.g., season, year). In a secondary climax south of the Houston metro, more than 50 inches of rain fell mainly in parts of Harris and Galveston counties, including the Houston suburbs of Friendswood and League City. Map of projected climate change in Canada. Pending final confirmation, this rainfall total would be the heaviest from any tropical cyclone in the U.S. in records dating to 1950, topping the 48-inch storm total in Medina, Texas, from Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978, according to Roth's research. A second site – Groves, Texas – also topped the previous record by receiving more than 60 inches during that same time period. The top rainfall total is 60.58 inches in Nederland, Texas, from Aug. Rainfall totals from Harvey in 2017. (David Roth/Weather Prediction Center)
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